Discover how the Dutch Book Theorem reveals profit opportunities in betting and finance when probabilities are misjudged.

Incrementality testing in Google Ads is suddenly within reach for far more advertisers than before. Google has lowered the barriers to running these tests, making lift measurement possible even ...

Probabilistic reasoning is central to many theories of human cognition, yet its foundations are often presented through abstract mathematical formalisms disconnected from the logic of belief and ...

Abstract: Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) enable unsupervised inversion by integrating seismic forward modeling equations directly into neural network loss functions, operating on ...

For centuries, humans have assumed that our thinking errors set us apart from the rest of the animal kingdom. From misjudging risks to seeing patterns that aren’t there, we like to imagine that our ...

When OpenAI’s GPT-4 and other large language models (LLMs) first awed the public with fluent text generation, skeptics were quick to point out that producing convincing sentences isn’t the same as ...

How do you shape perception ethically when storytelling beats facts? One compelling framework that offers clarity is Bayesian persuasion, introduced by economists Kamenica and Gentzkow in 2011, —a ...

A year ago today, a violent storm struck the coast of the sleepy Sicilian fishing village of Porticello. High winds and dramatic thunder and lightning are not unheard of around this time of year in ...

This innovative framework accounts for both parameter uncertainty and discrepancy, key issues that affect prediction accuracy of digital twins of automated material handling systems in semiconductor ...