The key to the severity of impacts in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico from strengthening Erin depends on how soon a turn to the northwest occurs with a near-miss versus a direct hit.

Parts of coastal Washington, Oregon and British Columbia may pick up five to 10 times their August monthly rainfall in a matter of hours late this week.

Pockets of severe weather and flash flooding will pose risks in the central and eastern United States into the weekend. A surge of tropical moisture may also increase the flood threat in Texas.